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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.3x - 0.3x | 0.3x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.3x - 0.3x | 0.3x |
Fair Value | €12.22 - €13.73 | €12.98 |
Upside | 40.1% - 57.4% | 48.7% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
HBX Group International plc | Q1D | MUN:Q1D |
Accor SA | ACR | XTRA:ACR |
Carnival Corporation & plc | POH1 | XTRA:POH1 |
Trip.com Group Limited | CLVB | BST:CLVB |
Meliá Hotels International, S.A. | MEL | DB:MEL |
TUI AG | TUI1 | DB:TUI1 |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
Q1D | ACR | POH1 | CLVB | MEL | TUI1 | |||
MUN:Q1D | XTRA:ACR | XTRA:POH1 | BST:CLVB | DB:MEL | DB:TUI1 | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | NM- | 6.7% | 3.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 4.1% | ||
3Y CAGR | NM- | 36.5% | 135.8% | 38.6% | 34.5% | 69.8% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | NM | 6.4% | 10.8% | 17.5% | 3.3% | 8.9% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 34.8% | -0.7% | -338.0% | 9.9% | -13.6% | -20.5% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 37.3% | 14.3% | 8.6% | 25.4% | 12.2% | 2.9% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 41.1% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 26.6% | 14.4% | 3.8% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 42.0% | 14.6% | 16.0% | 26.1% | 14.7% | 3.9% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 3.74x | 2.13x | 2.62x | 4.42x | 1.93x | 0.23x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 8.9x | 14.5x | 16.3x | 16.9x | 13.1x | 5.8x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 2.55x | 1.77x | 1.59x | 6.00x | 0.86x | 0.18x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.93x | 2.62x | 4.42x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.22x | 0.45x | 4.03x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.30x | 0.32x | 0.34x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 24,204 | 24,204 | 24,204 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 7,378 | 7,766 | 8,154 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,081) | (1,081) | (1,081) | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 6,297 | 6,685 | 7,073 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 507.4 | 507.4 | 507.4 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 12.41 | 13.17 | 13.94 | |||||
FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.41 | 13.17 | 13.94 | 8.72 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | 42.2% | 51.0% | 59.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | Q1D | ACR | POH1 | CLVB | MEL | TUI1 | |
Enterprise Value | 2,818 | 12,204 | 68,857 | 212,143 | 3,956 | 5,508 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 311 | 1,135 | 2,146 | 80,018 | 303 | 2,694 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 33 | 1,546 | 0 | 51,121 | 333 | 1,730 | |
(-) Debt | (1,204) | (4,281) | (28,653) | (39,683) | (2,508) | (4,604) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (2) | (421) | 0 | (1,043) | (319) | (901) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 1,956 | 10,183 | 42,350 | 302,556 | 1,766 | 4,427 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 247.2 | 240.3 | 1,454.0 | 653.6 | 220.2 | 507.4 | |
Implied Stock Price | 7.91 | 42.37 | 29.13 | 462.90 | 8.02 | 8.72 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 8.34 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.91 | 42.37 | 24.90 | 55.50 | 8.02 | 8.72 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 8.34 | 1.00 | 1.00 |