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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 11.8% - 10.8% | 11.3% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 6.7x - 8.7x | 7.7x |
Fair Value | €17.50 - €21.87 | €19.64 |
Upside | 38.6% - 73.1% | 55.5% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Dec-24 | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 |
Revenue | 633 | 556 | 589 | 690 | 787 | 842 |
% Growth | 0.5% | -12.2% | 6.1% | 17.1% | 14.1% | 7.0% |
EBITDA | 144 | 112 | 141 | 174 | 289 | 332 |
% of Revenue | 22.7% | 20.2% | 23.9% | 25.2% | 36.7% | 39.5% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(EUR in millions) | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | |
EBITDA | 112 | 141 | 174 | 289 | 332 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (12) | (15) | (17) | (94) | (67) | |
EBIT | 100 | 126 | 157 | 195 | 265 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (16) | (20) | (25) | (31) | (42) | |
NOPAT | 111 | 84 | 106 | 132 | 164 | 223 |
Capital Expenditures | (94) | (28) | (29) | (29) | (28) | (29) |
NWC Investment | (2) | 50 | (22) | (65) | (63) | (36) |
(+) D&A | 12 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 94 | 67 |
Free Cash Flow | 27 | 118 | 70 | 55 | 167 | 225 |
% Growth | 344% | -40% | -22% | 204% | 35% |