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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Discount Rate | 10.0% - 9.0% | 9.5% |
Terminal EBITDA Multiple | 8.0x - 10.0x | 9.0x |
Fair Value | kr163.39 - kr206.05 | kr184.33 |
Upside | 12.6% - 42.0% | 27.0% |
Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast | ||||||
(SEK in millions) | Input Projections | |||||
Fiscal Years Ending | Nov-24 | Nov-25 | Nov-26 | Nov-27 | Nov-28 | Nov-29 |
Revenue | 234,478 | 229,788 | 233,531 | 238,858 | 239,587 | 244,239 |
% Growth | -0.7% | -2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 1.9% |
EBITDA | 23,849 | 38,722 | 40,815 | 41,841 | 40,998 | 41,905 |
% of Revenue | 10.2% | 16.9% | 17.5% | 17.5% | 17.1% | 17.2% |
Calculation of Free Cash Flow | ||||||
Projected Unlevered Cash Flow | ||||||
(SEK in millions) | Nov-25 | Nov-26 | Nov-27 | Nov-28 | Nov-29 | |
EBITDA | 38,722 | 40,815 | 41,841 | 40,998 | 41,905 | |
Other Income / (Exp) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
D&A | (22,346) | (22,309) | (22,281) | (20,862) | (17,032) | |
EBIT | 16,376 | 18,506 | 19,560 | 20,136 | 24,873 | |
Pro forma Taxes | (5,076) | (5,737) | (6,063) | (6,242) | (7,710) | |
NOPAT | 11,995 | 11,299 | 12,769 | 13,496 | 13,894 | 17,162 |
Capital Expenditures | (10,060) | (11,377) | (11,588) | (11,852) | (11,500) | (11,500) |
NWC Investment | 12 | 37 | (30) | (42) | (6) | (37) |
(+) D&A | 6,465 | 22,346 | 22,309 | 22,281 | 20,862 | 17,032 |
Free Cash Flow | 8,412 | 22,305 | 23,461 | 23,883 | 23,250 | 22,657 |
% Growth | 165% | 5% | 2% | -3% | -3% |