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Saudi pledges big oil cuts in July as OPEC+ extends deal into 2024

Published 06/04/2023, 04:19 AM
Updated 06/04/2023, 11:36 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A 3D printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed Opec logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

By Maha El Dahan, Alex Lawler and Ahmad Ghaddar

VIENNA (Reuters) -Saudi Arabia will make a deep cut to its output in July on top of a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 as the group seeks to boost flagging oil prices.

Saudi's energy ministry said the country's output would drop to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, the biggest reduction in years.

"This is a Saudi lollipop," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz told a news conference. "We wanted to ice the cake. We always want to add suspense. We don't want people to try to predict what we do... This market needs stabilisation".

OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, pumps around 40% of the world's crude, meaning its policy decisions can have a major impact on oil prices.

A surprise decision to cut supply in April briefly sent international benchmark Brent crude around $9 higher, but prices have since retreated under pressure from concerns about the weakness of the global economy and its impact on demand.

On Friday, Brent ended trade for the week at $76.

Saudi Arabia is the only member of OPEC+ with sufficient spare capacity and storage to be able to easily reduce and increase output.

It was able to respond rapidly to excess supply that weakened the market in the early stages of the pandemic in 2020 when the group of producers implemented record output cuts.

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EXTENSION TO END OF 2024

OPEC+ has in place cuts of 3.66 million bpd, amounting to 3.6% of global demand, including 2 million bpd agreed last year and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million bpd agreed in April.

Those cuts were valid until the end of 2023 and on Sunday OPEC+, in a broader deal on output policy agreed after seven hours of talks, said it would extend them until the end of 2024.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began in February last year, Western nations have accused OPEC of manipulating oil prices and undermining the global economy through high energy costs. The West has also accused OPEC of siding with Russia.

In response, OPEC insiders have said the West's money-printing over the last decade has driven inflation and forced oil-producing nations to act to maintain the value of their main export.

Analysts said Sunday's OPEC+ decision sent a clear signal the group was willing to support prices and attempt to thwart speculators.

"It is a clear signal to the market that OPEC+ is willing to put and defend a price floor," Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects think-tank, said.

Veteran OPEC watcher and founder of Black Gold Investors Gary Ross said: "The Saudis have made good on their threats to speculators and they clearly want higher oil prices."

As the market stayed closed on Sunday, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo predicted a strong start when it reopens on Monday.

In addition to extending the existing OPEC+ cuts of 3.66 million bpd, the group also agreed on Sunday to reduce overall production targets from January 2024 by a further 1.4 million bpd versus current targets to a combined of 40.46 million bpd.

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However, many of these reductions will not be real as the group lowered the targets for Russia, Nigeria and Angola to bring them into line with actual current production levels.

By contrast, the United Arab Emirates was allowed to raise output targets by around 0.2 million bpd to 3.22 million bpd.

Latest comments

Well, lets cut our driving to see what are they going to do with that oil piling up.
Elon Musk will take up with his SpaceX program whatever oil you aren't using. LOL
The rally is already fading.
We should be drilling as this is what they do to us as we protect them. NOT OUR FRIENDS!!'
Yeah drill baby take something that already belongs to us then sell it to us brilliant lol
Short sighted
lower demand lower productions... ez
They dont deseve to keep the oil
Over 40% of oil demand is gasoline for cars in the US. Lower demand is coming. And they know it. China EV sales are booming.
not for long. war Camp.. china is slowly moving into a major economic recession....
 Dream on.
Clearly there is a rising demand in the G20 for crude oil due to space rockets/crafts/ships/shuttles, war machines, Jets, aeroplanes and cruiseships being on the increase.
It worked so well the last cut.
Saudi prince kept this 1 Mb voluntary cut in the pocket, just in case OPEC internal dissensions prevent formal cut agreement. It was a smart decision, because the pocket stuff has become necessary.
Okay, so let me recast it in "straight" language: It's interesting that you cite internal dissenting, WC, because AbS tried to make it sound like it was all hunky dory and they were kissing each other round the table :)
 Take it easy,baran.
I always have, not to worry :)
well, it's a good thing we just about emptied the spr reserve then lol
"Saudi lollipop" is here ... s(uck) on it, bulls! LOL. "We are not price-focused". But we'll cut again in August if the market doesn't come our way! What are a load of baloney!
you do have a point tim.
So far Biden is winning at dropping the price.
 Without a doubt.
Don't poke the bear.
will this affect the price of gold
It can affect the price of oil, and this has nothing to do with gold.
Obviously smoking crack to think demand is weak
Leaders of western countries want to slow oil consumption but get mad when OPEC reduces production...can't believe how naive their followers are!
 Please note, you can use google translator to get phrases from your native languages to more palatable English form.
Woke dork warm camp thinks Russia invaded Ukraine for wokeness violations. You sound like a single cell organism
 Sober up, Adolph.
US Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates this year!!
We have a glut of oil. A decrease in output may get a bullish reaction, but demand is low, likely until Fall.
oil today up or down plz signl
 The OPEC action is a mixed bag, the immediate price reaction can go either way. I would expect small changes tonight and tomorrow. Of course, most short term predictions are always wrong.
Glut of oil LMAO. Is that why the SPR is gone? America wanting to refill and Saudi saying it's going to cost you idiots more than when you emptied it.
oil tomorrow 72.6
This will spark a big rally in Crude.
Inflation will go up. Too many dollars not enough buyers.
More reason for Western Civilization to invest everything in renewable energy. Ship out all the traitors too while we are at it. Deport them all to Russia or the middle east since they love them so much. Good riddance
Anything can go up or down depending on the issue thats how traders make money …. Oil will go up with the news if u a seller just wait so u can sell higher … no nation will fall just because price up by 25%
This news is not exactly bullish for oil price, the price can go either way tomorrow.
The main driver behind oil price this year will be dynamics of the US and Russia output. Both will likely decline, though the magnitude of this, esp. in US, will depend on actual oil price in H2 2023.
Textbook Stagflation
except the opposite. inflation retreating and unemployment low
So they get richer while the rest of us pay more. F SA
Lower oil prices now cud mean lower capex and maybe higher prices in 2024?
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