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Nikkei 225 Futures - Jun 24

Real-time capital.com
Symbol
Exchange
Currency
JP225DerivedJPY
SSIc1SingaporeJPY
JNMc1TokyoJPY
SSIc3SingaporeJPY
SSIc2SingaporeJPY
SSIc4SingaporeJPY
JNMc2TokyoJPY
JNMc3TokyoJPY
NKc2CMEUSD
NKc1CMEUSD
Currency in JPY
Disclaimer
37,705.0
-42.5(-0.11%)
Real-time Data

Nikkei 225 Futures Discussions

This tech heavy index is going to go in reverse with a major rotation out of tech typical in this part of the cycle going forward. That, in addition to countless other headwinds is going to impact it. GLTA.
Wow, lots of money from outside of Japan has moved int Japanese stocks in recent weeks, and just in time to lose a truckload. :O A few more weeks of losses and they will probably all sell en masse. Funny how that works. Buy high, sell low.
I'm not sure that their timing could be any worse, and buying into bubbles--well, doesnt work out so well very often. I guess with all of the old narratives still alive and well people dont look into the numbers themselves and just trust these guys who get handsome fees for selling their stories. Oh well.
This little move up is probably a head fake. As soon as retail loads the boat the big fish will push it lower.
There is probably yet another waterfall drop coming. Any rises dont hold anymore without the BOJ there to buy all dips.
Always recover when everyone is confident that it will keep crashing
There has been an almost 100 points drop in ten or fifteen minutes. I think a bigger one is coming. I expect waterfall drops all the way down to about 22k or so and possibly lower.
Hope so. But been following your posts since last year 31k++. But it unreasonably keep going up. Dont know if it will stay around 37k-38k..
Could it be that without the BOJ to buy every dip and pump this to the moon this will no longer go straight up?! My word.
I guess Japan's experiment to get the tail to wag the dog has failed. Lol. What? you say. Yeah, hoping that by pushing up the stock market you can get GDP to follow seems to somehow not to have worked. Go figure.
Japan is not going to make it
Meh, probably not. But who cares?! Exhausting every last ounce of your resources and then borrowing more from tomorrow and all to prop markets up to the sky to make yourself look good is all that matters.
Looks like BOJ prepare for intervention. Taking money back from this equity market, they pumped up through years.
I dont expect them to tell anything. They never will. I just point out, that equity market gets drained. Could very well be BOJ who collects ammo. They will not be popular to dump just fx reserve dollars and push US inflation more.
It's an international race to see what central bank and government can prop up their stock markets more than any other no matter what the cost is. Anything to get the market to the moon. That is the ONLY thing that counts, and ANYTHING to do that.
Except that now the BOJ is selling and it and the government are out of ammo, nothing else matters. I guess it is time for Japan to relish in a very wonderful hangover after decades of punchbowl and partying!
Pump is coming
expect many fake moves before big move (down or up)
Lol. Why not up to 200k? Amd then down to 5k.
Cause chart says potencional maximum for april 2024 is 57000
Okay, the almighty chart says this, then that, then the other thing. Cool, but I think you have your chart upside down.
Under 38100, which now becomes resistance. :O Look out below!
No idea David Wien. But note that Japan's GDP, at least in dollar terms has been roughly flat for decades. In yen terms it has grown somewhat, maybe 20% over three decades, but that is largely due to the weak yen which has stoked exports. Assuming the yen will move back in line at some point, that rise will dissipate. Regardless, assuming stocks move in line with GDP, which they do over the long term, this index is worth 20k at fair value. But in the case of a poor economy and a tanking market, it often overshoots. In fact, with a similar GDP this index has reached as low as 7,000--and when the government was in much much better shape financially, so arguably even that number is again possible. Honestly, in some senses 20k as fair value is a generous number, but in other terms conservative. It all depends on how you look at things. But given a lot of investors are from outside of Japan, 20k is pretty average given they can get a reasonably good return comparatively from treasuries.
Honestly Ondrej, there is no way this will go to 50k. Without GDP growing steadily that is near impossible. You would need GDP to explode higher for that. Otherwise there would have to be a massive bubble virtually bigger than any seen in modern history. At 40k, the bubble was actually bigger than in 1989 because GDP has not grown--and that bubble was massive.
maybe, rebound only 24k
You were saying... Japan’s exports grew more than expected in March, continuing strong growth momentum from the prior month and pushing the country into a trade surplus as demand in its biggest markets- the U.S. and China- remained strong.
Inflation and GDP for Japan, that is.
That in mind, I think the whole export thing for Japan has been more than expected and already overzealously priced in--especially in light of the very very high valuations of Japanese stocks, at least in CAPE and market to GDP terms.
market cap*
The BOJ has been intervening in the Japanese market for decades. It has shot almost all of its ammo near nonstop the whole time. Now its balance sheet is huge, interest rates are about as low as they can be, Japan is rife with zombie companies, overcapacity and other imbalances and the government is so hugely indebted it is very very limiited in what it can do any more. In summary, the BOJ and government are all out of bullets and have wasted decades propping this up and the cost has been very very high. Now they have to do what they ought to have done decades ago instead. That is, restructure vs endlessly kicking the can and overspending, and market bubble pumping. In other words, it is time to let markets do what they naturally do--something they ought to have done decades ago instead of wasting Japan's resources chasing phantom growth.
Once this cracks below 38100 that becomes resistance. It is only a matter of time now. From there next support is at 35600.
Japanese economy is bad
Buffett and US mafia pumped japan junks ...
Opd fart buffett trapped...
Shorted the junk ...
38000 then 41400
Night
I mean 41000
correction to 41600
Perfect storm could happen here, if BOJ will intervene
The BOJ has been intervening in the Japanese market for decades. It has shot almost all of its ammo near nonstop the whole time. Now it's balance sheet is massive, interest rates are about as low as they can possibly be, Japan is teeming with zombie companies, and the government is so heavily indebted it is very very limiited in what it can do now. In summary, the BOJ and government are pretty much out of bullets and have spend decades propping this up and the cost has been very very high, and now they have to do what they ought to have done decades ago instead. That is, restructure vs endless kicking the can and overspending, and market bubble pumping. In other words, it is time to let markets do what they naturally do and ought to have been let to do in the first place.
39k ++ is still possible
Highly unlikely. 29k is more likely, I believe.
Several of my posts have been downvoted even though their predicitons all proved correct. Sure, blame the messenger for giving you the facts. The fact is this is going to go a lot lower from here. Don't expect much of a rise up short term either. The trend is now obvious and NO it is not up--it is down. The BOJ is no longer there to buy and prop this up after every dip. In fact, the BOJ could even be selling now. Also, the population in Japan is declining, the government debt is very very high, the BOJ's balance sheet is very very excessive--implying they really cannot do much more, the US market is also declining, a lot of countries are in recession already. Lastly, this market is very very overpriced relative to Japan's growth rate and the profit potential of the companies in Japan--a lot of which are zombie companies.
17.1%, that is. That is the proportion that are zombie companies, which is huge. Also note that the years of QE and low rates have actually done harm to Japan in a number of ways. First, they have pulled growth forward, and hence exhausted a large portion of it going forward. Second, they have allowed the taking on of a huge level of debt and a lot of extend and pretend by banks. That is growth limiting. Third, they have robbed the people of Japan of a fair return on savings, resulting in them saving very hard for retirement and childrearing, and in many cases simply forgoing having families--which would have been more affordable with a return on savings. This also contributed a deflationary force. Fourth, they resulted in companies competing on price--also a deflationary force. Fifth they pulled forward a lot of profits and spending--which will have a reverse effect when normalizing.
There was also misallocation of capital and overexpansion. In the end, a number of these effects will be with Japan for a while until Japan normalizes rates and policy. The country also has massive debt to work through, which will be a huge drag on the people and the government.
up to 40300 then fall
short term chart already forming lower low and lower high..
Ondrej, dude. It could be another few decades before this goes back to that level. The trend is down. And my guess is we go under 30k, possibly to 25k and even 20k this year.
I really dont know but were I to guess, I'd say this going to 33800--where it might be a buy.
33800, dude, not 38300. Careful. This thing is going to go down a lot going forward. I would not buy here at all unless you really know what you are doing.
What I mean is buy at 33800 for a trade--that is very short term, like a day or two, maybe. But conditions change quickly so I dont know yet. But certainly, if you do buy at 33800 do not hold on to it long term. That is, just buy it intending to sell quite quickly versus holding on for a year or even ten years.
Also, be careful how you read what I post. I am often making jokes because I do not understand why people EVER buy shares that are very very overvalued.
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