The global economy continues to exhibit uncanny resilience. According to just-released data by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Policy Analysis, global volume trade flows rose 1.5% in December to an all-time record high. As today’s Hot Chart shows, production was also up strongly on the back of a 1% monthly gain. This good performance was all the more impressive as it occurred despite large decline in economic activity in the Eurozone. While we certainly do not expect the next few months to be as strong as December, nor do we expect a large contraction in industrial output. As shown, the ratio of output-to-trade, a proxy for inventory/sales, remains below the level normally associated with a drawdown in inventories (and a large correction in commodity prices).
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