Gold has seen a lot of green candlesticks of late, and charts show that gold has now broken through the nearly 18-month long consolidation downtrend line and has broken through the top end of its frustrating near term range that topped around $1835.
When we look at breakouts on charts, a good sign is to see a significant-sized candlestick on decisive volume break through the line and to have several days of follow-through after to confirm this is a breakout.
At the time of writing, gold is looking strong. The only concern for us is what has caused this breakout? If it is purely a run for the safe havens (please read previous articles on our view of gold as a safe haven - clue; it isn't), then we would see the dollar get a bid as well, which we have.
What is curious is that during the Russia/Ukraine escalation, the dollar hasn't always strengthened at the same time as gold. We did see a brief run to bonds, the US dollar, and the yen - three traditional safe-haven plays, but this has not led to any significant follow through. Again at the time of writing, the dollar index is down.
So could it have been short-covering instead of aggressive buying? Perhaps, the follow-through on slightly less volume is not a hallmark of big money entering new positions.
If it is just money running to gold based on Geopolitical concerns, then gold bulls should be a little concerned in the short term, as every man and his dog knows should the escalation disappear, money will be pulled out and straight back into risk on stocks.
Or will they? Our view is the S&P 500 may well have hit its highs for the year. Unless the Fed intervenes, the markets have hit a bear trend that could last a long time. The fundamentals sit against the stock markets. All points to gold going higher.
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