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Weakest Get Weaker In Quiet Trade

Published 03/12/2013, 06:33 AM

Yesterday’s quiet session allowed traders to continue the trends that have dominated the FX market since the beginning of the year, with the yen and sterling broadly weaker through the session. The yen has taken back its title of the weakest currency in the G10 this year from sterling, following further Bank of Japan member comment that decisive easing is needed to get the economy going.

The yen also slipped overnight on the back of rumours that the Bank of Japan may call an extraordinary meeting to ease policy before the scheduled get together in April.

The euro was pretty quiet through the session despite the on-going political uncertainty. We saw the yield on Italian debt increase slightly on the day with a mirrored increase for German bunds and UK gilts as a result, but trade was very light through the entire market.


As we have been keen to mention lately, with the on-going negativity surrounding the UK as a whole, it is only a turnaround in the data from the UK economy that will see GBP start to lay the foundations for a recovery. Today’s opportunity comes in the form of industrial and manufacturing data with the market expecting a 0.1% increase in the former and a flat reading for the latter.

Given recent poor manufacturing data we would expect traders to be looking for further GBP losses following the announcement at 09.30am.
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Today’s trade balance data will also show if the weaker GBP has helped our exporters in the past month. Exporting components of PMI surveys have remained in contractionary territory for over a year now and we believe that an improvement will not be forthcoming this morning.
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