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Trading Plan: A "Fall" Is In The Air

Published 11/01/2013, 05:05 AM

Pre-market update:

  • Asian markets traded 0.3% lower.
  • European markets are trading 0.1% lower.
  • US futures are trading 0.2% higher ahead of the market open.

Economic reports due out (all times are eastern): PMI Manufacturing Index (8:58), ISM Manufacturing Index (10)

Technical Outlook (SPX):

  • Second consecutive day trading lower. The dip buyers tried to come in early on, but the bears managed to take price action back down to the day's lows.
  • Most concerning for the bears is the fact that they couldn't break through the 10-day moving average, which could act as a second attempt for the bulls to push this market higher.
  • Volume the last two days has been very strong, especially when compared to the light volume on the rally that proceeded the 2-day sell-off.
  • If the bears are going to control this market, it needs to take out the 1740 level.
  • The last 5 trading sessions that started out the month, has been bullish for the markets.
  • I'm beginning to look for a more legitimate sell-off from the markets here, much like we saw after September's rally. However, I will let the price action come to me and stay nimble with my portfolio allocation to the short-side, just in case the market chooses to continue its euphoric rally.
  • Watch the 10-day moving average at 1757 today. A very telling sign will be if price can break and close below this level since we haven't done so since the rally began on 10/9.
  • Volume was well above average and almost twice what we had seen recently on the SPY.
  • 30-minute chart on the SPX already shows a pullback in play.
  • Markets don't care about the economy nor earnings. That is not what is driving them. The markets only care about what the Fed is doing to keep equities propped up.
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My Opinions & Trades:

  • Closed/covered FCX at 36.79 for a 1.3% gain.
  • Closed PRU at 81.68 for a 0.8% gain.
  • Closed POR at 28.98 for a 0.9% loss.
  • Went short HLF at 66.34 yesterday.
  • Currently 30% short / 70% cash.
  • Current Shorts: FFIV at 83.15, HOG at 64.25, HLF at 66.34.
  • Join me each day for all my real-time trades and alerts in the SharePlanner Splash Zone

Chart for SPX:
SPX
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