The annual spring slowdown is here again. As discussed earlier (see post), the previous three years saw a strong start in the U.S., followed by a slowdown in economic activity, particularly in manufacturing.
What's especially troubling this year is that we are also seeing a corresponding slowdown in other major economies, namely Germany...
... and China.
(source: HSBC, Markit)
Treasury yields declined to the lowest level this year in response. That move reflects the bet that given the soft patch in the economy, the Fed will continue buying government paper for some time to come.
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