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Arrrgghh… Tricked by a simple wriggle that seemed to point to a shallow correction… Instead we saw deeper corrections across EUR/USD, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY… It’s the latter that cannot take any further deeper correction that suggests to me that we’ll see follow-through today. That and the Dollar Index which should make a new low today also.
Further along the Dollar Index is probably worth watching as theoretically this low should not be broken. It can see a deep correction and retest the low we should see today but otherwise I think we’re just about done on the downside there.
Well, that tends to make life just a little more complicated given that I feel there is a risk of a new dollar low against the pound. Yesterday I had warned of the potential for the euro and swissie to possibly do the same but this would risk a lower Dollar Index. The only alternative I can think of is that we see a stronger reversal in the continentals but shallow in the pound followed by a deep correction only in the continentals while the pound makes a (probable) minor new high…Anyway, this love triangle + 1 is something to keep tracking for a while…
Perhaps even USD/JPY and EUR/JPY add to the mystery. The Cross made a very deep pullback yesterday but I still feel needs to make a final high before it reverses lower. Logical as long as the continental Europeans make new dollar lows… However, the prospect then is for losses and while
Just for today what I want to see is basically the same as yesterday… a final blip lower in the dollar before a larger reversal. At that time we can then see how the pound fares as it does appear to be the odd one out…
Further along the Dollar Index is probably worth watching as theoretically this low should not be broken. It can see a deep correction and retest the low we should see today but otherwise I think we’re just about done on the downside there.
Well, that tends to make life just a little more complicated given that I feel there is a risk of a new dollar low against the pound. Yesterday I had warned of the potential for the euro and swissie to possibly do the same but this would risk a lower Dollar Index. The only alternative I can think of is that we see a stronger reversal in the continentals but shallow in the pound followed by a deep correction only in the continentals while the pound makes a (probable) minor new high…Anyway, this love triangle + 1 is something to keep tracking for a while…
Perhaps even USD/JPY and EUR/JPY add to the mystery. The Cross made a very deep pullback yesterday but I still feel needs to make a final high before it reverses lower. Logical as long as the continental Europeans make new dollar lows… However, the prospect then is for losses and while
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USD/JPY made yet another push higher I can’t see this as anything but corrective so any stronger losses will also provide a minor drag on any reversal higher in the Dollar Index.Just for today what I want to see is basically the same as yesterday… a final blip lower in the dollar before a larger reversal. At that time we can then see how the pound fares as it does appear to be the odd one out…
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