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Tech Leads Again, but Small Caps and Retail Must Join for a Broader Rally

Published 05/01/2025, 12:12 AM

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) gets a downgrade. 

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) Inc. crashes on weaker earnings. 

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is in the political crosshairs on tariffs.   

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) turns to India to assemble iPhones.  

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), KLA (NASDAQ:KLAC), Equinix (NASDAQ:EQIX), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (NYSE:CP), Aflac (NYSE:AFL), Allstate (NYSE:ALL), MetLife (NYSE:MET), Public Storage (NYSE:PSA), Crown Castle International (NYSE:CCI), and Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) all reported after the close. 

Microsoft and META beat earnings.  

MSFT rallied after hours. META did as well, but not as robustly. 

Between headlines and earnings, looking at the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NYSE:MAGS) representing MSFT, APPL, NVDA, META, and AMZN could shed some light. MAGS ETF-Daily Chart

We have discussed a sustained tech rally when growth begins to outperform value. 

I wrote about the consumer still in the game. 

Can growth save the economy? 

We really want to see the inside sectors gain from here if this NASDAQ and earnings optimism is to spread to the more internal areas of the US market. 

While many of the companies today that reported create jobs and revenue, the tariffs could impact them going forward. 

The real economy is not in AI, while that will drive efficiency and productivity. 

The real economy is the small caps, retail and transportation sectors. This is where we see consumer and manufacturing stress. 

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Looking at MAGS, we can see that $47 is a good place to clear and there is a chance it will open above it tomorrow. 

NASDAQ futures cleared the 50-DMA after hours. That must sustain. 

Bottom line is we are trading above the April 9th high after hours, which gives traders a swing point to hold and to bounce from. 

Remember, the gold to silver ratio peaked in 2022 which led to the bonds bottoming, the silver rallying and the SPY holding and eventually running higher. 

2025 right now looks like a repeat. 

ETF Summary 

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below) 

S&P 500 (SPY) 560 big area to clear  

Russell 2000 (IWM) 180 support-200 resistance    

Dow (DIA) 400 support  

Nasdaq (QQQ) 460 support 480 resistance 

Regional banks (KRE) 50 support 

Semiconductors (SMH) 200 support 230 resistance  

Transportation (IYT) 60 key area  

Biotechnology (IBB) 120 near-term support 

Retail (XRT) 64 key to hold. 69 resistance 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 89k support 95k pivotal 110 resistance

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