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This Stock/Bond Indicator Could Be Creating A Topping Pattern

Published 10/08/2018, 08:08 AM

Stock/Bond Indicator

This chart compares the relative strength of Stocks to bonds by creating the S&P 500/10-Year yield ratio (SPX/TNX) on a monthly basis, since the mid-1970s.

The stock/bond ratio’s trend has been up for the past 34-years, following a resistance breakout in the early 1980s. Nothing of late has changed this long-term bullish trend, which is experiencing a major support test right now at (1).

Over the past 3 years, the ratio has traded sideways, where it could be creating a head-and-shoulders topping pattern. Softness in the ratio of late has it testing 34-year rising support and potential neckline support at the same time at (1).

At this time, support is support. If it fails to hold, it would suggest a long-term trend change is in play.

What the ratio does with support will send very a very important message to stocks, bonds and asset allocation models!

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