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Stobart Group: Disposal-Driven Returns Plus Growth

Published 11/10/2016, 11:50 PM

We were, on balance, reassured by Stobart Group (LON:STOB) interim results. The 7.8% yield, supported by the continuing disposal plan, gives equity holders more than enough compensation before operations in Energy and Aviation fully ramp up to their FY19e/CY18 objectives. We adjust our near-term forecasts upwards slightly to reflect the observed H117 margin expansion, but leave our FY19 target year estimates largely unchanged. We believe in the deliverability of Stobart’s FY19e growth targets but, in the case of the Aviation business, we would be further reassured by concrete evidence of passenger growth.

Stobart Group Financials

Core: Better profitability, but Aviation not ‘in the bag’

We increase our core EBITDA forecasts by 0.5% and 2.6% for FY17 and FY18 to reflect better than forecast profitability in Energy and Aviation. We are encouraged in particular by the outlook in both the Rail and Energy businesses. However, in Aviation, while we welcome the addition of CityJet as a partner at Southend Airport, we believe management has yet to demonstrate the concrete progress in passenger growth to reassure the market on its FY19e targets.

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