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SPX Monitoring purposes; long SPX on 5/15/58 at 5916.93
Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%
Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold long GDX 4/11/25 at 49.66 = gain 21.33%.
We ended up 29.28% for 2024; SPX up 23.67% for the year. The sixth best week of the year according to seasonality is May 24 to June 5 and we are in that timeframe now. Below is the daily SPY.
We shaded in light blue the times when the TRIN and Tick reached bullish panic levels; the last two times came in near the 585 range.
Panic produces energy for the market to rally. The current rally may take us to the 610 SPY range, which is the February highs, and that area may find resistance and a place we may exit our long SPX.
We updated the chart from yesterday, and yesterday’s commentary still applies: “Above is the monthly SPY. On the volume window, we labeled an “RR”. The RR stands for “Railroad tracks” pattern, which describes the high volume down to nearly equal the high volume up, and looking like a railroad track. This RR predicts that a bottom has formed and the trend has turned up.
Another pattern formed is a Head and Shoulders bottom, where the Head formed in April and the Left Shoulder formed from December to February. The Right Shoulder is forming now and may take until August to complete. The Neckline is near the 610 range, and the next test may provide resistance and may be a “jumping off” place on our long SPX position.” Long SPX on 5/15/25 at 5916.93
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Above is the monthly GDX with its Bollinger Band and RSI; the chart goes back to 2016. We noted with dotted red lines the times when the monthly GDX reached above the upper Bollinger band near 80% or greater and when the RSI reached near 70. Back in April, the monthly GDX reached 80% above its upper Bollinger band, and the RSI reached above 70.
Notice that at the 2016, 2019, and 2020 highs had double tops; it appears also the current setup is also making a double top, where current trading is testing the April high. The monthly RSI is also extended with a reading of 73.75. The evidence suggests a pullback is likely, and the possible target is still the 39.00 range on GDX.
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