Earlier today I posted a commentary on Octobers in the Dow, by far the most volatile month over the past 114 years. My focus was on monthly closes, not the daily prices within months. Well, today's 1.75% gain in the S&P 500 (1.64% in the Dow) might inspire a monthly comparison of daily volatility. Today's surge was a Fed minutes rally, with the market delighted by the dovish tilt in the views of the Federal Open Markets Committee.
And speaking of October, today's 1.75% advance in the S&P 500 was the largest since its 2.18% jump on October 10th of last year.
Will the Fed Effect have staying power? Perhaps, although the potential market mover over the next few days will probably be the first glimpse of Q3 earnings.
The yield on the 10-year Note ended at 2.35%, down 1 bp from yesterday's close and only 1 bp above its 2014 closing low.
Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.
Here is a daily chart of the SPY ETF. Today's big move came on extemely high volume, and the close was in the vacinity of the ETF's 50-day moving average.
Was the high volume triggered by the Fed minutes? Check out a 5-minute chart of the SPY-ETF
A Perspective on Drawdowns
The chart below incorporates a percent-off-high calculation to illustrate the drawdowns greater than 5% since the trough in 2009.
For a longer-term perspective, here is a pair of charts based on daily closes starting with the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.
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