Retail Sector Holds Above Key Lows, but Resistance Ahead Limits Growth Potential

This past week, I wrote a lot about the relationship between silver, gold, bonds, the US dollar, and S&P 500. 

I also spoke in the media about those relationships as they are key right now to ascertain whether we are remaining in stagflation, heading towards recession, or resolving the uncertainty, thereby seeing our way to growth. 

However, the Economic Modern Family always has its own story to tell. 

And while the retail sector is our major focus as the ultimate barometer for what’s next, it is time to look at the whole Family. 

Starting with Retail XRT, the good news is that it is holding above the recent lows.  

XRT also had the best closing level in the last 3 weeks this past Friday.  

XRT though, has more work to do. At best, the consumer sector is trying to bottom. At worst, this is a rally into resistance. Watching. 

The Russell 2000 (IWM) had a good week. But the path to greatness is when IWM gets back over the 200-WMA (green). 

Biotechnology IBB took out the highs from the prior two weeks. That makes this sector a bit more attractive. Nonetheless, the distance to its 200-WMA is quite far. 

Semiconductors SMH are where the retail buyers go. 

While earnings in Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Inc. helped, the reality on the SMH chart shows more of a potential bottoming consolidation, but no real breakout until SMH gets back over 220. 

Looking at the rest of the Family… 

Transportation IYT struggles to keep up. Again, it could be bottoming. We need more evidence. A climb back over the 200-WMA would be a good sign. 

Regional Banks KRE have an interesting golden cross. The 50-WMA (blue) is crossing above the 200-WMA.  Worth noting is that the price remains below both moving averages.  

KRE gets above the MAs, we got something interesting. 

As for Bitcoin, the decoupling we wrote about 2 weeks ago, and what I discussed with Charles Payne on Fox Business April 4th, is happening. 

95k is now a pivotal area. Should this clear 100k this coming week, 110k should come quickly. 

Overall, the weekly chart shows all members except SMH in a Distribution phase.  

That is better than a bearish phase, but not by much. 

Semiconductors are in a caution phase, but again, in a range within the week of April 4th trading range (the big move lower). 

Bitcoin of course, and as we predicted, is having its own party.  

The conclusion we see is that we could be bottoming. BUT the uncertainty looms in the Family.  

While this is a welcome respite from despair, the Family is not as happy as they could be considering the green week.  

Another interesting week on tap! 

ETF Summary  

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)  

S&P 500 (SPY) If 550 holds good sign  

Russell 2000 (IWM) 180 pivotal-200 resistance    

Dow (DIA) 400 now has to hold  

Nasdaq (QQQ) 460 the new support level  

Regional banks (KRE) 50 should hold if good 

Semiconductors (SMH) 205 support 220 resistance  

Transportation (IYT) A move over 60 gets interesting  

Biotechnology (IBB) 120 near-term support 

Retail (XRT) 64 key to hold. 69 resistance 

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 89k support 95k pivotal 110 resistance