Trump says U.K. would fight for U.S., doubts EU commitment
Ouch. Yesterday was a set back. Was it a fatal one for my count? Not exactly, and perhaps I should say probably not. However, it is courting a possible breakdown and with a very slim margin. Therefore what happens today is going to be very important. In some ways perhaps it’s not so surprising given the major wave degree within which I feel we’re navigating. It’s a weekly, well actually a multi-year corrective structure, and it’s in corrective structures where the potential for greater noise across all wave degrees can rise considerably. This tends to push the corrections to the limits, and often in complex structures.
So, frankly we need a pretty quick resumption of dollar losses. This, is so as Price Equilibrium is really on the verge of reversing all the good (if slow) work that has been done over the past two weeks. As long as this occurs all should be well. If not, then look for follow-through from yesterday’s moves. At this point, considering the less than encouraging indications, I prefer to wait for confirmation of my preference to be proven, or not. This applies across the Europeans.
The Aussie is a slightly different prospect, although itself often generating its own surprises. I can’t say the expected recovery has been totally straight forward but does remain positive and I’d like to see it continue that way. However, this is a correction higher within a larger downtrend so keep one eye over your back.
The JPY pairs, the USD/JPY a little stronger than anticipated while the EUR/JPY played the role of a bit-part actor. The key pair here is the USD/JPY. The signals look a little ominous to me. Thus, how the relative moves between the USD/JPY and EUR/USD – which will see a stronger move – will rule the cross which does seem set for a correction before too soon but not yet the end of the rally. That does tend to argue for a positive EUR/USD.
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