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Orexo AB (ST:ORX): US net sales of Zubsolv (for the treatment of opioid dependence) grew 10% y-o-y to SEK124.1m in a market where volume growth was driven by the larger (46% of all subscriptions), less profitable and more competitive public segment (Zubsolv has 27% market access). Despite a testing quarter we believe the market’s view of Zubsolv’s prospects is too pessimistic; Q3/Q417 should gain from the addition of Zubsolv to the state of Wisconsin’s preferred formulary for it Medicaid programme. Additionally, Zubsolv recently gained a preferred (now reimbursable) position on the CVS Caremark 2018 formulary, taking its access to the commercial sector to over 90%. Abstral royalties, which are loaded to H217, should aid in achieving FY17 forecasts.
Zubsolv: Optimising investment to capture growth
The whole opioid dependence market grew 9.8%, but was mainly driven by the growth in the less profitable public segment where Zubsolv currently has lower market access (27%; cash: 100%; commercial: 80%), thus limiting y-o-y overall Zubsolv demand growth to 7.6%. In addition, the positive effect of stocking and currency offset the reductions in net pricing, resulting in Zubsolv y-o-y US net sales growth of 10% to SEK124.1m. Orexo is optimising its investment strategy to focus on growth in all segments including capturing market access in the public segment; the addition of Zubsolv to the state of Wisconsin’s preferred formulary should aid Q3/4 volumes.
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