The October jobs report is due out on Friday (13:30 CET) and will provide important input in the Fed's decision as to whether it hikes or not in December. Thus, we may change our current call for 'no Fed hike' this year after the release.
Labour market data in October was mixed. Claims figures continue to signal job growth well above 200,000 while the PMI employment index for October points to only modest growth just above 100,000. We estimate job growth was 170,000 in October (in line with consensus), slightly higher than the September growth of 156,000 jobs.
We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0% in October with the probability skewed towards a fall back to 4.9%.
The sideways move in the unemployment rate throughout 2016 suggests there is further slack left in the labour market than previously thought.
We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0% in October with the probability skewed towards a fall back to 4.9%.
There is a sharp division among FOMC members regarding their views on labour market developments.
To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below
Which stock should you buy in your very next trade?
AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes 6 winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. Which stock will be the next to soar?
Unlock ProPicks AI