Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, heading into February Options Expiration week that the bull market would continue to chug along and get stronger from some perspectives. Gold looked to continue in its tightening range awaiting a break out while Crude Oil pulled back in the uptrend. The US Dollar Index was looking to test the upside of the broad range while US Treasuries were biased lower. The Shanghai Composite remains biased to the upside in its consolidation, but closed for the Chinese New Year, while Emerging Markets were testing the limits of how long a bull flag can run before turning into a downtrend. Volatility looked to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts agreed with new 5 year highs for the SPY and all time highs for the IWM but most interesting a breakout of the range higher for the QQQ. It is unusual, but not unprecedented, for the Dollar Index to continue higher as Equities rise so a caution was issued to keep an eye on that as risk for a reversal.
The week played out with the break out in Gold arriving and it moving lower while Crude Oil consolidated around a major support/resistance level. The US Dollar continued toward the top of a range while Treasuries remained under support but stable. The Shanghai Composite was closed for the Chinese New Year celebration while Emerging Markets moved to the top of the flag channel. Volatility continued at unusually low levels and in a narrow range. The Equity Index ETF’s used this backdrop to continue higher with the IWM leading followed by the SPY and then the QQQ. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.
Disclosure: The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
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