Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested heading into December that the equity markets looked solid and may have new leadership. Elsewhere looked for gold to continue lower while crude oil built a bear flag in its longer downtrend. The US dollar index was breaking out to multi-year highs while US Treasuries consolidated with a short term bias higher. The Shanghai Composite broke consolidation to the downside and was resuming the downtrend, while Emerging Markets were moving lower after failing at resistance. Volatility looked to remain subdued and possibly fall, keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETFs N:SPY, N:IWM and O:QQQ. The SPY and QQQ paused last week and the IWM had taken over leadership in the short term. All looked positive on the intermediate term chart.
The week played out with gold holding steady before a large bounce at the end of the week while crude oil drifted lower testing support twice. The US dollar moved slightly higher ahead of the ECB decision, but then fell hard while Treasuries tested higher but then pulled back. The Shanghai Composite found support and bounced while Emerging Markets continued to drift lower. Volatility had a volatile week starting lower but then spiking and finally recovering to near unchanged. The Equity Index ETFs started the week drifting near the highs but then pulled back Wednesday, with all recovering somewhat Friday except for the IWM.
Disclaimer: The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog. Please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
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