Talking Points:
NZD/USD Technical Strategy:Flat
- Support: 0.7682, 0.7525, 0.7386
- Resistance:0.7802, 0.7937, 0.8034
The New Zealand Dollar paused to consolidate after breaking below the bottom of a range containing prices since mid-November. A daily close below the 0.7682-96 area marked by the July 2013 bottom and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion exposesthe 38.2% level at 0.7525.Alternatively, a turn above the14.6% Fib at 0.7802opens the door for a test of the 23.6% Fib retracement at 0.7937.
A short trade looks attractive from a purely technical perspective but we will opt against establishing the position. The approaching US Employment report represents an important inflection point for risk appetite and may meaningfully alter positioning for the sentiment-sensitive New Zealand unit. As such, we will opt to wait for event risk to pass before committing to a directional bias.
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