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Interest Rates Sputter, Is U.S. Economy Next?

ByChris Kimble
Published 03/21/2019, 01:29 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Monthly 10-Year Yield

The Federal Reserve wasn’t quite as hawkish as investors expected. The result: Treasury bond yields (interest rates) fell sharply.

In today’s chart of the 10-Year US Treasury Yield we highlight the reversal in rates that occurred late last year.

This wasn’t just any old reversal, though. It occurred along the same long-term downtrend line that produced reversals in the years 2000 and 2007.

A closer look at the chart and it appears that 10-year yields are breaking short-term support. This is also occurring as monthly momentum rolls over from lofty levels

Interest rates can provide insight into the economy long before pundits begin reporting on it. Could the recent decline in interest rates be a signal that the economy is beginning to sputter? At a minimum, it’s worth watching so stay tuned.

Latest comments

Chris, can you write on how dirty laundered money supports the markets?
This only matters if corporate/junk bond yields are staying the same or rising. It's the widening spread between Treasury Yields and Junk that is bearish, not the decline of Treasury Yields by itself.
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