We have mentioned that Gold is likely to test 1178 and 1156. Our reasons were clear enough technically and fundamentally. XAU/USD hit 1.160 USD and ended the week at 1.184.
Fundamentally:
Despite of the dramatic fall on XAU/USD, ETF’s Gold positions did not fall as much.The physical demand is coming back. Those are the good news for the Gold Bulls.
The move in Gold is really a function of Dollars strength.However, one of the main question is whether Gold is losing its safe have appeal? Some investors are wondering if the U.S. dollar is stealing gold’s safe-haven allure amid heightened trade tensions.
Technically:
Monthly Chart:
Gold Rally started in 2008. From 650 USD to 1900 USD. Gold Prices have been falling since 2012. Fibonacci 61.80 of XA move has been tested this week. ( 1157 – 1165 ). The question is: “ It was just a profit realisation or the bottom of the bearish move? “
If the Gold Prices breaks below Fibonacci 61.8, Fibonacci 78.6 is located at 950 USD.
As you will see on the chart, Gold broke out the triangle. Technically, it is not a good signal for the bulls.
Weekly Chart:
If we look at the broken triangle, on the downside, 1125 – Fibonacci 78.6 of XY - and 1050 are the next support levels. The target of the formation is 950 USD – 1.272 Extension of XY and 78.6 of AB on the monthly chart.
We have a sub-Fibonacci Level 88.6 at 1.080. This level is important in our Gold scenario.
Daily Chart:
1360 has been tested several times. We see a double top and the neckline was 1240. Prices have dropped 60 USD after breaking below 1240. And the target of this formation is 1110 – 1120 levels.
Shorterm Overview:
Gold ended the week at 1.184 – above Fibonacci 61.80 – We may see a correction towards 1.190 and 1.208 USD.
We have 2 bearish patterns confirming the bearish continuation.
Conclusion:
1. We do not predict the Gold prices will turn into a Bullish trend as long as the prices hold below 1.240. – Not before the second half of 2019 -
2. All pullbacks towards 1218 are selling opportunities. – Shortterm selling levels will be published for the members –
3. Breakout of Fib 61.8 – 1157-1160 – will carry the prices 1124 and 1100 .
4. There is a sub region between 1.100 and 1.080 where we can see a strong bullish reaction towards 1210 USD. ( Stop Hunt of the new sellers )
5. This scenario is valid under the current fundamental facts. A dramatic change on the fundamentals would invalidate this scenario.
This analysis prepared by the global analysts of Chartreaderpro.com and published on Investing.com. Commercial distribution is strictly prohibited.
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