BIAS: This appears still to be in a correction higher - take care with the potential for complicated structures.
Resistance: 1.6575-80 1.6597 1.6620-25 1.6650
Support: 1.6560-65 1.6535 1.6520 1.6498
MAIN ANALYSIS: Instead of a minor new low we saw a choppy rally to the to of the 1.6565 - 1.6600 area from where we have seen a correction back to 1.6565. This may have done enough for a correction although the 4-hour Price Equilibrium Cloud is still providing resistance. Thus, any break below 1.6560 would extend losses and may then retest the 1.6535 low. I still have a cautious preference for gains to the 1.6625-50 area but ensure we see a decent reversal indication. A move above 1.6597 would then take price to that 1.6620-50 area and also allow for 1.6670-78.
COUNTER ANALYSIS: A break below 1.6535 would risk losses to 1.6511 at least - any breach would see losses extend to 1.6480 and later to the 1.6465 daily low. Below would suggest follow-through to the 1.6392 daily retracement support.
MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS:
20th August: With the development in the EUR/USD, I am more encouraged by the corrective bearish structure that should probe the lower areas of the daily correction. The minimum is at 1.6495 but I suspect the 1.6392 area minimum and could be lower. However, before reaching that target area we are probably due a modest correction higher.
26th August: I am wary due to the vague correction and continued requirement for losses. I would suggest waiting for a break of yesterday's low at least and preferably 1.6498-11. Until then there is risk of the current correction continuing.
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