Following the publication of the government's revised budget and debt management strategy, we now project government deposits will be around DKK110bn and the net position around DKK220bn at the end of year.
We see some upside and downside risk to our estimates from the possibility of a further improvement in government finances over the rest of the year.
The recent easing of the risk of persistent tight DKK liquidity can help explain the recent fall in EUR/DKK FX forwards. It further reduces the potential for renewed upward pressure towards the end of the year and next year.
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