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Forecasting The S&P 500 E-mini Futures Index...My Dumb Luck?

Published 03/29/2015, 11:59 PM

My post of April 5, 2014 refers to the below.

The following Daily chart of the {{8839|ES S&P 500 E-Mini Futurs Index}} shows what happened from that date up to the present. The ensuing swings overshot my projected targets a bit, and it took a bit longer for the "FROTH" level around 2100 to be reached, but price action generally followed the path that I forecast a year ago...price has been consolidating, basically, below that level since December 2014. Additionally, volatility did become the "name of the game" over those weeks and months, as I had anticipated.

ES Daily Chart 2014-2015
As can be seen on the next Daily chart of the ES, 2100 represents a double Fibonacci confluence major resistance level that will have to be solidly overcome and held before bulls can resume any kind of sustainable uptrend. A break and hold below 1992 could see bears take the ES down to 1813, or lower. Until we see a solid break one way or the other, I expect volatile swings to continue in both directions to plague both the bulls and the bears.

ES Daily 2013-Present

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