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3 Charts Show Extremes In Bond Market Sentiment

Published 10/09/2018, 12:22 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Three Quickfire charts on US bond market sentiment. Some of these sentiment charts are clearly at an extreme - and that's usually when you go looking for contrarian signals. But then I look at a lot of charts on the bond market and it's quite easy to make a case for a major trend change.

1. Speculative futures positioning: The standout here is speculative futures positioning in the 30-year Treasury... gone from around neutral to extreme short. Total capitulation.

Speculative Futures Positioning

2. Stocks vs Bonds futures positioning: This one shows were equity vs bond market futures positioning lies right now - notice how the gap is at a record high. Traders are doubling down on growth/inflation here.

Stocks Vs Bonds Futures Positioning

3. Bond mutual fund flows: Last one shows a massive lurch in bond fund flows, with net-outflows the most extreme since the taper tantrum.

Bond Mutual Fund Flows

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