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The recent four-week rally in the EUR/AUD cross pair, from the 14 May 2025 low of 1.7254 to the 13 June 2025 high of 1.7884, may have reached an inflection point where the odds now favour the start of another potential medium-term (multi-week) corrective decline sequence.
Fig 1: EUR/AUD medium-term trend as of 19 June 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Preferred Trend Bias (1-3 Weeks)
Bearish bias with key medium-term pivotal resistance at 1.7890, and a break below the 1.7625 near-term support (intersection area of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) exposes the medium-term supports of 1.7475 and 1.7255.
Key Elements
The upward move of the EUR/AUD from the 14 May 2025 low to the 13 June 2025 high has triggered a bearish reaction at the upper boundary of a medium-term descending channel that is still evolving from the 9 April 2025 medium-term swing high.
The 20-day and 50-day moving averages have turned flat, which suggests that the prior minor uptrend phase from 14 May 2025 low to the 13 June 2025 high has ended.
The 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has printed a series of “lower highs” and inched below the centreline without hitting the oversold region yet (below 30). These observations suggest bearish momentum has surfaced.
Alternative Trend Bias (1 To 3 Weeks)
A clearance above 1.7890 swings the pendulum back to bulls for the start of another potential impulsive bullish up move sequence within its major uptrend phase to see the next medium-term resistances coming in at 1.7980 and 1.8150 in the first step.
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