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EUR/USD for Thursday, January 30, 2014
For the last month or so the Euro has steadied and established a trading range roughly between 1.3550 and the recent resistance level at 1.38, however to finish out a couple of weeks ago the Euro broke down through the support level at 1.3550. This movement lower was building up over the last week which resulted in a new eight week low a week or so ago. The 1.3550 level has become a key level over recent times and last week the Euro sprung off it to a two week high at the resistance level at 1.37 where it has spent the last several days consolidating below, despite its recent increase in volatility. Prior to the recent low it spent a week rallying up from the support level at 1.3550 but it ran into the same short term resistance level around 1.3700 which is where it settled for a couple of days before easing back to 1.36. After placing some pressure on the resistance level at 1.38 several weeks ago, the Euro has since fallen sharply down to its lowest level in a month to the support level at 1.3550 before rallying back to the resistance level at 1.37. Through November the Euro enjoyed a solid move higher which saw it return to a wall of resistance at 1.38 and in doing so move to a then six week high. In the few days afterwards the Euro challenged the 1.38 resistance level again before being turned away yet again.
In mid November the Euro did well to bounce strongly off support at 1.34 and recover the lost ground from the previous couple of days which saw it fall from the resistance level around 1.3550. This was after a few weeks which saw it move steadily higher from a support level at 1.33 back up to a three week high just above 1.3550. Over the last few months 1.3550 has been a key level. Towards the end of October the Euro enjoyed a strong surge higher to move through to its highest level in nearly two years just above 1.38 before spending that week content to consolidate around this level. Over the following three weeks it fell heavily down to a support level at 1.33 before recovering well. It moved quite well throughout the middle of October after breaking higher from its sideways range. For the month leading up to that, the Euro traded within a narrow range between 1.3450 and 1.3650 before the range narrowed down to between 1.35 and 1.36. The former level of 1.35 was strongly tested a few weeks ago and has resurfaced as a significant level presently.
Throughout August the 1.34 level had been causing the Euro headaches however several weeks ago it surged higher and moved through there to its then highest level since February just shy of 1.3570, which was past a couple of weeks ago moving to just shy of 1.3650. About a month ago the Euro fell strongly away from the resistance level at 1.34 back to below the support level at 1.32 and in doing so traded to its lowest level in seven weeks very close to 1.31. Looking at the bigger picture the Euro spent a lot of August and September trading within a range between 1.32 and 1.34 before recently pushing its range to between 1.3450 and 1.3650. Back in early July the Euro was content to maintain the level above 1.31 and settle there, as it received solid support from both 1.30 and 1.31. On a couple of occasions it made an attempt to move within reach of the longer term resistance level at 1.32 and finally it finds itself trading on the other side of this level and being well established there.
Fragile growth in the euro zone may be welcome after a prolonged recession, but any recovery is failing to show up in monetary data, with the banking sector continuing to be a drag. Data on Wednesday showed the annual growth rate of the euro zone's money supply — the total amount of money in circulation or existence — fell to 1 percent in December, the lowest level since late 2010. In addition, loans to the private sector dipped 2.3 percent in December on the year before. This was the worst fall since the data started being tracked in 1991. Falling loans and slowing growth in money supply are both trends which began in the middle of 2012. Now, the latest weak lending and money supply statistics could push the European Central Bank (ECB) to act at its upcoming policy meeting next week.
EUR/USD Daily chart" title="EUR/USD Daily chart" height="242" width="474">
EUR/USD 4 hourly chart" title="EUR/USD 4 hourly chart" height="242" width="474">
EUR/USD January 29 at 21:50 GMT 1.3662 H:1.3684 L: 1.3603
EUR/USD Technical
S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
1.3500 | 1.3400 | --- | 1.3700 | 1.3800 | --- |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, the Euro continues to remain steady and stay below the resistance level at 1.37 after surging higher last week. Current range: just below 1.37 around 1.3660.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1.3500 and 1.3400.
• Above: 1.3700 and 1.3800.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
EUR/USD Open Position Ratios" title="EUR/USD Open Position Ratios" height="27" width="474">
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for the EUR/USD among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The EUR/USD long position ratio has moved back above 30% as the Euro has steadied just under the resistance at 1.37. The trader sentiment remains in favour of short positions.
Economic Releases
- 20:00 (Wed) NZ RBNZ - Cash Rate (Jan)
- 23:30 (Wed) JP Real Household Spending (Dec)
- 23:50 (Wed) JP Retail Sales (Dec)
- 00:30 AU Export price index (Q4)
- 00:30 AU Import Price Index (Q4)
- 09:30 UK M4 Money Supply (Dec)
- 09:30 UK BoE - Mortgage Approvals (Dec)
- 09:30 UK BoE - Net Consumer Credit (Dec)
- 10:00 EU Business Climate Index (Jan)
- 10:00 EU EU Business and Consumer Survey (Jan)
- 13:30 US Core PCE Price Index (1st Est.) (Q4)
- 13:30 US GDP Annualised (1st Est.) (Q4)
- 13:30 US GDP Price Index (1st Est.) (Q4)
- 13:30 US Initial Claims (25/01/2013)
- 15:00 US Pending Home Sales (Dec)
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