Odds of an equity drawdown ‘now larger than that of a large rally’: Goldman
Per Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count, Ethereum (ETHUSD) most likely completed a leading diagonal (red) W-i/a from the June 18 low to the Aug. 14 high. It has since been in a corrective price pattern. See Figure 1 below.
Last week, I found “the bulls are on full watch on a move below $1,490, which will negate a bullish setup. Below the (green) W-a low at $1422, and we can set our sights on $1,320-1150 for a rather typical/classic 61.80-76.40% retrace of (red) W-i/a to complete W-ii/b. That, in turn, means the next rally, W-iii/c to ideally $3,500, should get underway once the current correction is over.”
Figure 1. Ethereum daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.
Fast forward and ETH/USD broke below $1,490 and $1,422, thus triggering the grey path I shared last week with my premium crypto trading members to ensure they would stay as well-informed as possible of ETH's price action. There are now technically enough waves to view the current leg lower from the (green) W-b high complete. However, and ideally, I would like to see a more pronounced (grey) W-iv and v. Thus, for as long as ETH's price remains below the (grey) W-i low ($1555), this path should fill in. W-iv should top around $1460+/-30, and W-v should ideally be about $1,150-1,225. From there, W-iii/c to ideally $3,500 should start.
But a rally directly above that $1,555 level means (green) W-c of (red) W-ii/b already completed. If that happens, I will set my eyes on the W-iii/c to ~$3,500. Thus, either way, there's nothing in the charts yet to tell me the rally to $3,500 will not materialize. That cut-off is still the June low. It is, for now, as I see it still a matter of "pay me now" vs. "pay me a little bit later."
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