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In less than one month lean hog prices have gone from oversold to overbought. Lena hogs are on a short list of commodities that have been able to trade higher in recent weeks. From my perspective, the fact that prices have been unable to make it to higher ground, perhaps due to outside market influence, leads me to suspect prices are due for a correction.
Lean hogs are a 40,000 lb. contract which means every penny move in futures results in a $400/move gain/loss per contract. Aggressive traders can get short or gain bearish exposure with an exit strategy if futures trade above 84.00. Look to capitalize on deprecation in the coming days to week.
I would expect more selling once prices close below the 9 day MA which has supported for the last 2 weeks. My target is a trade back to 80.00 in the October contract. What makes this compelling is the risk to reward dynamic.
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