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Can Joby Spark a Short Squeeze? Dual Aircraft Flight Could Be the Catalyst

Published 05/14/2025, 10:24 AM

On May 12, 2025, Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY) announced an operational achievement: it successfully flew two of its pre-production prototype aircraft simultaneously for the first time.

The May 9 landmark event, completed in Marina, California, marks a major step forward in Joby’s flight testing and program maturity. Coming just after its Q1 2025 update, which highlighted FAA certification progress and routine piloted transition flights, this achievement signals growing operational readiness. Demonstrating the ability to fly multiple aircraft at once shows Joby’s expanding test capabilities, a critical element in accelerating Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) type certification and its path to commercial launch.

For investors, this is a tangible sign of execution and scaling capability.

How Dual Flights Impact Joby’s Certification Timeline

The strategic importance of Joby Aviation’s ability to fly multiple aircraft simultaneously cannot be overstated, particularly in the context of the rigorous and lengthy FAA certification process. It allows Joby to increase its testing throughput significantly, gather a larger volume of flight data in parallel, and evaluate a broader range of operational scenarios more efficiently.

This expanded capacity is especially important for progressing through Stage 4 (Testing & Analysis) of the FAA’s type certification process. As of Joby’s Q1 2025 update on May 7, the company reported it was 43% complete on the FAA side and 62% complete on the internal side of Stage 4, marking its second consecutive quarter of record progress. With six aircraft in its test fleet, the dual-flight milestone is expected to accelerate remaining validation efforts and support faster completion of certification tasks.

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Additionally, two of Joby’s aircraft are currently undergoing testing at Edwards Air Force Base for defense partners. The ability to fly multiple aircraft may also aid in meeting Air Force contractual milestones more efficiently.

How Joby’s Q1 Progress Enables New Milestones

This operational progress builds on Joby’s strong Q1 2025 performance. A key highlight from that period was the successful execution of routine piloted full transition flights, where company pilots seamlessly maneuvered the aircraft from vertical takeoff to wing-borne cruise and back to vertical landing. This critical capability demonstration, first achieved on April 22, showcased the aircraft’s design maturity and pilot handling characteristics.

Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) Price Chart

Financially, Joby closed the quarter with $812.5 million in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments, with the first $250 million tranche of Toyota (NYSE:TM)’s latest $500 million investment commitment expected to be reflected in the second quarter’s cash balance. Joby also reaffirmed full-year cash usage guidance of $500 million to $540 million, reinforcing confidence in its runway.

Manufacturing capabilities are also advancing, with the company’s fifth aircraft produced on its pilot production line having been powered on, and the expanded manufacturing facility in Marina, California, nearing completion with an expected handover in June 2025. This facility will more than double Joby’s existing manufacturing footprint.

These developments set the stage for the successful two-aircraft flight and highlight the cumulative momentum behind Joby’s accelerated timeline.

Post-Milestone Market Reaction

Joby Aviation’s stock closed at $7.00 on May 12, 2025, showing recent positive momentum (up ~17% in the past month), suggesting growing investor optimism after positive operational news. Despite a recent downgrade citing sector concerns and not issues with the organization, the analyst consensus remains a Moderate Buy with an average 12-month price target of $8.67 (around 25% upside). Canaccord Genuity Group reiterated its Buy rating post-Q1 earnings, increasing its price target to $12.00 (an even better ~72% upside).

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While Joby’s 16.68% short interest and recent insider selling suggest that there might still be some market skepticism and potential volatility, the simultaneous flight milestone represents a significant positive development that could further strengthen investor confidence and put pressure on prevailing bearish sentiment. This combination of positive factors could potentially create conditions conducive to a short squeeze should a major positive catalyst suddenly emerge.

Joby: Accelerating Towards Commercialization

Joby Aviation’s simultaneous flight of two eVTOL aircraft signifies escalating operational maturity and intensified efforts to accelerate FAA certification. Building on routine piloted transition flights and positive Q1 2025 updates, this achievement reinforces Joby’s leadership in urban air mobility.

For investors, the ability to conduct complex parallel testing continues the de-risking process on the path to Type Inspection Authorization and full type certification. As Joby advances toward delivering an aircraft to Dubai in mid-2025 and aims for passenger operations in early 2026, successful simultaneous flight operations should be a critical indicator for investors tracking the company’s journey to commercial viability and market leadership.

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