- Bitcoin extends gains, rising to a peak of $99.8k
- The Fed left rates unchanged, and Powell highlighted stagflation risks
- Trump teases a trade deal announcement
- Bitcoin realised cap rises to another record high
- Bitcoin breaks out of its recent range to eye 100k
After a sideways trajectory over recent weeks, Bitcoin has broken out of range, rising to 99.8k, a 3-month high, taking the price to within a breath of the key psychological level, 100k. BTC has risen 3.3% over the past 24 hours and trades 2.2% higher this week.
The crypto market capitalization has risen above $3 trillion for the first time in eight weeks, triggering a wave of liquidations. According to Coinglass data, liquidations reached $369 million over the past 24 hours, of which over 70% were short positions. Meanwhile, the crypto Fear and Greed index has recovered to Greed territory, signaling a shift in market sentiment from neutral last week to extreme fear last month.
Stagflation Worries Boost BTC.
The US central bank left interest rates on hold at 4.25% to 4.5%, as expected, extending the wait-and-see stance amid rising uncertainties.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is in no rush to cut interest rates amid Trump’s trade tariffs, which have increased uncertainty about the economic outlook. In his press conference, Powell discussed the rising stagflation risks, including higher inflation and unemployment, issues that require differing policy responses. The Fed is staying patient to see which part of the dual mandate will be the larger risk.
This uncertain stagflation rate environment supports Bitcoin’s status as a store of value, likening it to digital gold. Given Bitcoin’s limited supply, it is considered a good hedge against inflation. This tool parallels the 2020 monetary easing when crypto rallied.
Adding to the bullish mood, Trump teased a major trade deal announcement, which could mark the first such agreement since he imposed tariffs on many of America’s trading partners.
In addition to supportive fundamentals and strong institutional demand (BTC ETFs are on track for a fourth week of net inflows), on-chain data is also encouraging.
Bitcoin Realised Cap Hit Another Record High.
Bitcoin’s realised cap, an on-chain metric measuring total dollar value invested, has risen to record levels for a third week in a row, reaching $890.74 billion. This metric is considered a gauge for long-term stakeholder sentiment and indicates an increase in invested capital and growing conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. This could suggest that Bitcoin’s breakout is a result of sustained accumulation rather than mere speculation.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has broken out of its tight trading range, extending gains to 99k, a level last seen in February. It continues to trade within its rising channel, which dates back to early April.
Bullish momentum hasn’t been sufficient to push the price above 100k, the key psychological level and the mid-point of the rising channel. Buyers will need to take this key level to bring the 109.5k record high into focus.
However, the RSI is at 70.55, just into overbought territory.
Support is seen at 97k, the upper bound of the recent trading range. A break below here could open the door to 93k, the weekly low, and below here, 90k comes into play.
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