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Big Gains Are Made With Trending Moves, Not Volatile Moves

Published 04/08/2018, 02:55 AM

Many have been saying that volatile markets provide some great investing/trading opportunities. I would say that is half true. While rising volatility ultimate scares out weak-handed holders of stocks into the strong-handed, the volatile nature of markets can make it very uncomfortable even for the strong handed buyers.

For decades the trajectory of the stock market has been up, there is clearly no argument. Throughout history, moments of panic and terror have provided some with great opportunity to grab stock. Most recently the financial crisis, or the Great Recession of 2008/09 bought world markets to their knees. With supportive central banks providing generous ultra liquidity, which continues to this day - many investors scooped up the bargains of a lifetime. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) at 3, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) at 58, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) at 48, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) at 14 and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) under 3 bucks, just to name a few.

But these stocks were pounded to the ground during the financial crisis, and whatever credit you want to give to central banks, they moved higher over the years as markets trended higher, and volatility declined sharply. Picking up stocks when down are moments in time, holding on for big gains is long time journey.

As an investor and swing trader, I'm all in for the big and powerful moves. Hence, while I may trade options, which are by nature short-term trading instruments, I will often seek more time for the trades to work in my favor, preferring to hold long enough for a good-sized move to happen. Short term moves due to extreme volatility not only make it tough to get into a position, but there is the 'falling knife' syndrome. I prefer to let a stock stop falling first before reaching down and buying after/during a selloff.

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Short term traders of stocks, options or futures must keep a very tight leash on their trades and accept rather modest returns that can repeat themselves over and over again. Rare is the time when these traders get a huge pay for taking risk they are not programmed to accept. When markets begin trending and volatility trends (usually downward), then we'll see more opportunities to hold stocks longer. For now, it's simply a trader's market. If you're not comfortable with the big moves up/down, then the sidelines are always a good place to be.

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