On May 16 I posted that the impending ascending triangle breakout on the ES daily chart was likely to be a fake-out.
The Breakout from the S&P 500 Ascending Triangle was Brief
Last Tuesday the S&P 500 reentered the formation. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 retested the formation top. On Friday the S&P 500 closed inside the triangle for the day and for the week. The S&P 500 had roamed outside of the formation for five days, including the breakout day.
Once a breakout on an ascending triangle fails, the target becomes the formation low. At the moment, that’s at roughly the level of the 200 dma.
A retrace to the formation low would put a potential H&S on the chart. The right shoulder minimum retrace target would be ES 2080.
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