Morgan Stanley identifies next wave of AI-linked "alpha"
What do the three largest declines in the S&P 500 since 2007 have in common? It has nothing to do with a low VIX! Nor does it have to do with extreme bullish sentiment.
Any thoughts what might tie these declines together?
The top chart is the yield on the 10-year note (inverted). By inverting the series, you get a sense of what Bonds looked like over the past 10-years. This chart reflects that the inverted yield is on support line (1). Each of the three different times the yield has hit support line (1), the S&P 500 has declined: Two 15% declines (2010 and 2011) and a much larger decline in 2007.
At (2) in the chart above, yields are back at this key line. So what happens next?
We're now facing a situation that hasn't happened in three years -- one that has led to large moves in the bond market/interest rate complex.
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